Hope Drop #28: James Pethokoukis: Conservatism Meets Futurism
“Not taking any risks might be the biggest risk of all”.
This month, economic policy analyst and commentator James Pethokoukis joins us to discuss his book, The Conservative Futurist, and his perspectives on technology and economic growth. James explores his background, the spectrum of 'upwing' (pro-progress) versus 'downwing' (anti-progress), and the role of technology in solving global challenges. He explains his reasoning for being pro-progress and pro-growth as well as highlighting the importance of positive storytelling and education in developing a more advanced and prosperous world.
James’ Recommended Resources
Interstellar, Christopher Nolan, 2014 [film]
The Precipice, Toby Ord, 2020
The Peripheral, William Gibson, 2014
The Martian, Matt Damon, 2015 [film]
James’ Vision for the Future
James is aiming for a future driven by significant technological advancements. In his view, technologies such as AGI, nuclear fusion, and widespread access to genetic treatments could lead to a world with less disease, abundant clean energy, and economic growth, supporting innovation and prosperity across the board. His Existential Hope scenario is a society where individuals have the freedom to invent and pursue their own visions of the future, leading to diverse and vibrant communities living in harmony with these future advanced technologies.
Therefore, James worries that policies which slow technological progress will mean “we're unable to solve the big problems that we should have solved earlier”. For him, “not taking any risks might be the biggest risk of all”.
About the art
This art piece was created with the help of Dall–E 3.
Library Recommendations
What’s Our Problem? - Tim Urban. Introducing a new framework for thinking about our socio-economic turmoil.
21 Lessons for the 21st Century- Yuval Harari. On large-scale trends that will shape this century and how to avoid risks arising from them.
Where is My Flying Car? - J. Storrs Hall. An account of technological stagnation since the 1970s and an imaginative blueprint for a richer, more abundant future.
Roots of Progress Fellowship. A nonprofit focused on creating a new philosophy of progress for the 21st century, seeking to understand, champion, and accelerate human advancement by advocating for the belief in and systematic study of progress.
Community Updates
Join Rethink Priorities for a webinar hosted by Bob Fischer and Arvo Muñoz from their Worldview Investigations Team, exploring the practical applications of the CRAFT Sequence tools for constructing effective giving portfolios.
August 5, 2024 20:00 GMT+1
“In politics, there is no ‘world’; only states. For pathogens, there are no ‘states’; there is only the world.”
Aware of the deadly viruses, climate-changing carbon molecules, and harmful pollutants which cross the globe unimpeded by national borders, Jonathan Blake (Berggruen Institute) and Nils Gilman (Berggruen Institute) write about a new system of political governance to manage plantary issues and their local consequences.
For those interested, please also see Children of a Modest Star: Planetary Thinking for an Age of Crises (Blake and Gilman, 2024) which discusses how the profound mismatch between the scale of planetary challenges and the institutions tasked with governing them is leading to cascading systemic failures.
In the essay We Need An FDA For Artificial Intelligence, Emilia Javorsky, FLI proposes the establishment of a regulatory body analogous to the FDA to oversee the development and deployment of AI technologies. As AI permeates various sectors, the potential for bias, privacy violations, and other ethical concerns grows. Javorsky argues that a dedicated agency would be responsible for setting rigorous standards and evaluating AI systems prior to their implementation, thus ensuring their safety and ethical integrity. This regulatory framework would protect public interests, support innovation, and build trust.
The Good Science Project, a non-profit think tank, is seeking ambitious ideas for policy briefs on improving federal R&D efforts. You’ll need to write a single paragraph that details an evidence-based R&D reform that you believe will make government work better. If your idea is promising, The Good Science Project will work with you on a full-fledged policy brief.
See their call for proposals here, or submit your idea directly here.
Learn more about our work at existentialhope.com.
I recommend Daniel Schmachtenberger’s work on the definition of progress and what the link between technological advancement and morality. I also recommend the work of Nassim Taleb and Yanir Bam Yam on the non-naive precautionary principle.